Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Pittsburgh has covered 14 of the last 19 games these two teams have played, and they are clearly the better team on the field tonight. The Bengals were supposed to be a Super Bowl contender, but that level of play hasn't materialized yet. They have had issues stopping the ground game with every opponent topping the 100-yard mark on them except for lowly Carolina. Pittsburgh has a lethal back in Rashard Mendenhal and he should have success. That will set up Ben Roethlisberger up for a couple of big play-action passes. It's easy to see Cincinnati, a team that has allowed 28.3 ppg over their last three games, giving up a big play or two in this one. The Bengals have not been able to get pressure on the quarterback all season, as they have recorded just six sacks the entire season. The Pittsburgh defense has been stuffing the running game, but they really have had issues defending the pass. While the defense ranks #4 overall and #1 against the run, they rank #25 against the pass! They are allowing opposing quarterbacks a 68% completion rate which is ranked 31st in the league. So, Carson Palmer should be able to move the chains enough to get the Bengals in position to get some points. Cincinnati has faced three teams that rank No. 29, No. 26 and No. 24 against the pass and have scored 32, 24 and 20 points in those games, averaging 25.3 points per game. The Bengals have played to a 5-1 mark to the OVER in their last six vs. a winning team and 4-0 to the OVER as a dog from 3.5-10 in their last four. Over the past three seasons, the Bengals have played six games vs. teams that came in allowing 17 or fewer points per game. All six of those games went OVER the total. The Steelers are 7-1 to the OVER in their last eight following a loss, and 22-10-1 to the OVER in their last 33 vs. AFC opponents. My computer matchup for this game (not on official pick) has Pittsburgh winning 23-18. I actually think it will be higher scoring and I'm on the OVER here.