Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

The Cincinnati Bengals are not getting very much respect despite their lofty 10-2 record, which is now tied for tops in the AFC with New England and Denver. It has been the case all season, and it has led the Bengals to an NFL best 10-1-1 ATS mark on the season. Cincinnati is out-scoring teams by 11.5 points per game, and this line appears to me to be completely underdone. They are 19-3 at home in their last 22, winning by nearly two TDs, and none of the wins have been by less than three points. QB Ben Roethlisberger has had trouble staying healthy this year, and the Steelers are averaging just 20 points per game on the road for the season. Over Big Ben's last 18 road games as a dog, Pittsburgh is just 6-12 SU and 7-11 ATS, but scoring just 18.4 ppg. The problem has been 23 TD passes to 20 INTs, and his QB rating is just 81.2. In Andy Dalton's last 29 starts as a home favorite, the Bengals have allowed just 18.6ppg. This is a division game with a high total, and I just don't see it getting there. The Steelers have eclipsed the total in just one of their last 10 when following a win. The Bengals are now 34-15-2 to the UNDER after scoring 30+ in their previous game, and are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 home games. Take Cincinnati and the UNDER in this one.