Pittsburgh at Atlanta

Is Atlanta really a home dog here? Classic public overreaction has led to a line that is off. Last week, Atlanta got spanked by the Giants and Pittsburgh laid a whopping on the Chiefs. It was downright ugly as KC played about as bad as a team has played all season. 45-7 was the final score and now all of a sudden, everyone thinks Pittsburgh is back. I mean they are the Super Bowl Champs, right? Well, it was a good game for them and they needed it. But, that's partly why they did so well. They had lost three straight and they were laser focused in that game. But I'm not completely sold on Pitt yet. Let's not forget that with Roethlisberger at the helm, this team has scored less than two touchdowns twice (agianst Jacksonville and San Diego). Those were two very good defenses and they face another today. The Falcons defense ran into a great offense last week and they just weren't ready for it. They were a bit overconfident after having allowed just 10.5 points per game going into that game. Pittsburgh's offense is not as good as New York's. Atlanta has been working hard all week here after last week's performance and you can bet their defense will be fired up. They know they have to atone for that poor showing against New york and they are going to come in with a bit of a chip on their shoulder knowing they are expected to lose this game at home. Their running game is ridiculously good (232 yards per game) and Pittsburgh's defense is susceptible to the run. While the Steelers have shut down some teams that have struggled rushing the ball this season, they allowed over 100 yards per game to both Jacksonville and San Diego. They lost both of those games. We were on the Giants last week because it was a bad matchup for Atlanta. If the Falcons get down against a great offense, they have to rely on Michael Vick to bring them back and that doesn't happen too often. But, against a lower-scoring opponent like Pittsburgh, the Falcons can grind the ball out on the ground and stay with them. I love the fact that we have a team here off a huge easy victory now posted as a road favorite against a home team off an embarrasing upset loss. The Falcons will try harder and keep this close. Atlanta is, in fact, a perfect 8-0 ATS the past three seasons off a double-digit loss. Back them with the field goal to spare.