Philadelphia at Washington

While these two teams played to a low-scoring game earlier in the year, I think this one will be different. The Redskins are ranked 30th in the league in yards allowed per game at 393 per game. They have allowed 27+ in four of their eight games this season! They are especially vulnerable to the pass. Only the Houston Texans have a worse pass defense. That spells trouble with Michael Vick coming to town. Vick sits atop all NFL QBs in passer ratings at 105.3. He has nine TD passes, has yet to throw an interception, and is running at 7.3 yards per carry. He has put up MVP numbers in his five starts. Because he has missed games this season, he isn't getting as much media attention as he could be. After tonight, he might start getting his due. The Eagles have averaged over 24 points per game in Vick's starts and on the season, they are ranked 7th in the league in points per game and fourth in yards per game. The Eagles have played each of their last four games to the OVER, as well as playing 6-1 to the OVER after a game where they accumulated 350+ yards. Washington, through their first eight games a year ago, did not score more than 17 points in any game. This season the Redskins, with McNabb at the helm, have gone for 24 or more in three of their last seven and 16+ in each of their last seven. So, their offense is definitely finding the end-zone with a greater frequency. And, they should have some success against a Philly defense that is ranked in the bottom third of the league in points allowed (23 per game). The Skins have come out throwing after a game where they were held to 90 rushing yards or less. Consequently, they have been 8-2 to the OVER following 90 or less on the ground. Over the past three seasons, the Eagles have gone 15-6 OVER in games with a close line (+3 to -3). Mike Shanahan has shown a propensity to carry the momentum of one high-scoring game into the next. His teams have gone 74-51 OVER after an OVER the previous game. His teams are also 42-24 OVER when facing good passing teams like Philly (those that complete 61%+ of their attempts). I like this one to go OVER the total.