Philadelphia at Tampa Bay

The Eagles are about as ugly as it gets. They have dropped eight straight games, lost their starting QB, and their long tenured coach appears to be on the chopping block. To make things worse, they just released their best pass rusher. That sounds like a team that is ready to pack things in. That is, until you look at what they have done over the last two weeks. They lost at Carolina, but only by 8 points despite a -3 turnover disadvantage. That tells me that this team has not yet quit. Last week, Nick Foles and Bryce Brown combined for over 400 yards of offense in a competitive 5-point loss in Dallas. Those two players are another reason this team has not quit as both are trying to make a name for themselves so they don't have to remain backups. The Eagles finally have a running game to take the pressure off of Foles, and I expect them to use more of it here to keep the defense off the field. Tampa Bay got into a five week offensive groove that showed them average 35.6 points per game. They have since come back down to earth in their last three games where they have averaged over 10 points less than that, and have not topped 23 in regulation minutes. Doug Martin has had a great rookie season with over 1,100 yards, but almost half of it came in three weeks. He has been slowed in all other games, and lately has just 106 yards on his last 39 carries. The Bucs are just 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 at home and that includes an even worse 3-13 ATS vs. a team with a losing road record. Under Andy Reid, this team is 28-13 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Eagles have played 7-1 to the UNDER in their last eight on the road, as well as 26-10 to the UNDER in their last 36 after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. In their last 14 games after scoring 30+ and allowing 30+, the Eagles are 12-2 to the UNDER. Play on Philadelphia and take the UNDER.