Philadelphia at Green Bay

Matt LaFleur is making a good first impression in his first year as coach of the Packers, who are 3-0 straight-up and ATS and are so far successfully navigating a new offense. Aaron Rodgers threw for 235 yards and a touchdown and Aaron Jones ran for two scores as Green Bay beat the Broncos 27-16 on Sunday. The Packers are second only to the Patriots in points allowed with 11.7 per game and they are fifth in pass defense. Philadelphia was dealing with so many injuries last week that they went through walkthroughs part of the week instead of regular practice to avoid further injuries and a lack of players. The Eagles then went out and lost to the underdog Lions and now they have to play on a short week on the road. Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS its last six September games and 1-8-1 ATS in Week 4 the last 10 years. Green Bay has been looking good in every phase, including the offensive line, which is giving Rodgers time and keeping him protected for the most part. Lay the points with the Packers. Also take the OVER. The Eagles are averaging 25.3 points per game while Green Bay is averaging 24.0 per game at home. And, Philly is allowing 26 points per game. Both of these teams are going to score. The Eagles are 61-37 to the OVER on the road vs. good passing teams like Green Bay (teams at 61%+ completion rate). And, Green Bay is also 93-61 OVER vs. losing teams and 67-38 OVER vs. poor defensive teams, teams like Philadelphia that allow 350+ yards per game. Back the home favorite and the OVER in this one, taking the OVER as a Max Play.