This pick was released to clients on August 14, 2012 at 10:39PM ET.
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Philadelphia at Green Bay

November 10, 2003
img9:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

Two teams that have found some momentum tangle on Monday night. Last week Green Bay played way over their heads in what was their most important game of the year. It was a must-win and the Pack played that way. I don’t think they’ll be able to put another performance like that together tonight against a resurgent Eagles club. Things might just be coming together for the Eagles. After a half-season of turmoil, there is some light at the end of the tunnel for the Birds. It’s hard to say whether McNabb is truly back to Pro Bowl form but since he has removed the protective wrapping from his injured thumb two weeks ago, he’s been playing much, much better. If McNabb can continue to play well to compliment the league’s 8th best rushing attack, Philadelphia will win a lot of games in the second half of the season. This week they’re facing the league’s 30th ranked defense in the Packers (allowing 34 points per game over the last three games). The Eagle’s defense, on the other hand, has been very good against the run but horrendous against the pass. That appears to be changing however, as the defense seems to finally be adjusting to the early season losses of several key defensive starters. Over the last three games, Philadelphia has held opponents to 200 yards passing per game (versus 250 in the first five). And over that same stretch, they’ve held opponents to just 14 points per game. Finally, there’s a small chance that Pro Bowl corner Bobby Taylor and/or All-Pro safety Brian Dawkins will be back for this game. Philadelphia under Andy Reid is 27-12 ATS in their last 39 on the road (3-1 this year) and 25-11 ATS as a dog (2-1 in 2003). Philly qualifies for a historical trend that involves road dogs versus teams allowing lots of points for two straight games that is 75-39 ATS (11-4 in the last 15).

4 units on Philadelphia +4.5 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64)
Result:
WIN
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