New York vs. Miami

The weather in London, England, looks good for a change. These England NFL games have been high-scoring at a 5-1 run OVER the total. Miami has more talent on offense than it has shown so far and they plan to open things up with QB Ryan Tannehill against the Jets' strong defense with fourth-year coach Joe Philbin on the hot seat already. Miami is a good bounce-back team at 7-3 ATS following a double-digit loss at home. In addition, the OVER is 5-1 after the Dolphins lose by 14 or more points, plus 4-1 OVER following a double-digit loss at home. They face a New York team that was riding high starting 2-0 before getting bounced back to reality, falling behind the Eagles 24-0 last week. That forced QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw more and the result was three picks and a defeat. He is a marginal NFL QB, at best. Four turnovers and a number of missed tackles on Darren Sproles' 89-yard punt return for a TD killed the Jets. With workhorse RB Chris Ivory sidelined by a quad injury, New York managed 47 rushing yards and he is still not 100%. He's averaged just 3.7 yards per carry in four games against the Dolphins, too. In addition, New York receiver Eric Decker (knee) will miss a second consecutive game. The Jets are 1-4 ATS in October contests, as well as 1-9 ATS after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. New York is also 5-1 OVER the total in October coming when defensive-minded Rex Ryan was the coach. They are also 13-4 OVER after allowing fewer than 250 total yards in their previous game. Miami has a strong pass rush that can apply pressure on Fitzpatrick, which means he will be good (or bad) for a few more turnovers. Miami is 4-0 OVER the total when facing the AFC and when these division rivals meet the underdog is 4-1 ATS. Play Miami and the OVER.