New York at Tennessee

It is strange to say this, but the winner of this game will emerge at 3-1 on the season and will start to be considered a contender for the playoffs. The Jets offense has been controlled thus far and Geno Smith has done an admirable job as a rookie without a lot of weapons. The lone blemish on this Jets log was a three point loss at New England. The Titans are playing tight in every game, and their big win vs. Pittsburgh to open the season just doesn't look very big right now with the Steelers sitting at 0-3. Tennessee needed a last minute drive to salvage a win at home vs. San Diego last week, and the margin of error for this team is very slim. They could easily be 1-2 or 0-3 so I am not buying them, laying more than a field goal. The Titans are just 6-23-1 ATS after passing for over 250 yards in their previous game, and just 8-21 ATS in their last 29 vs. a winning team. Over the past couple of seasons, the Titans are just 1-8 ATS vs. teams like the Jets that average 350+ yards per game. Since Rex Ryan took over in New York, the Jets are 14-5 ATS when coming off a home win. And, in the Mike Munchak era, the TItans are awful vs. winning teams, having gone 1-9 ATS in ten games. This looks like a tossup game, and the points are large. Play on the New York Jets.