New York at New England

Rex Ryan is gone but there's still plenty of bluster coming out of New York about the 4-1 Jets. They have surprised, but let's not forget who they've played...nobody. Maybe shutting down Andrew Luck and the Colts was pretty good, but it's clear the Colts just aren't very good this year thus far. The Jets also looked lost in a 24-17 defeat at home to the Eagles. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three picks that game as the Jets fell behind and he is turnover-prone in those situations. The Jets are 2-9 ATS after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. These Patriots also played those Colts on the road last week, and shut them out in the second half until a garbage time TD, winning comfortably. New England is sizzling on offense as Tom Brady (14 TDs, one INT) has so many talented targets to go in with Julian Edelman (team-leading 40 receptions, four TDs), Rob Gronkowski and even WR Brandon LaFell is expected to play for the first time this season. The Patriots are 11-4 against winning teams, as well as 14-6 ATS at home. Brady and Bill Belichick are on a mission this season because of “Deflategate” -- and the last time that happened was when the Jets turned them in for “Spygate” in week one of the 2007 season, and they ended up 16-0 with a record-setting offense. There is a lot of noise coming out of the Jets camp this week as DT Sheldon Richardson has all but guaranteed a Jets victory. I think that will provide some bulletin-board material for Belichick. These Patriots are unbeaten with an average margin of victory of 16 points this season. The Patriots will get an early lead to force the Jets to throw more and turn them into turnovers and points, adding to their sizzling 35-15-2 ATS run in October. Under Belichick, the Pats are 56-38 ATS vs. division foes and 76-58 ATS at home and 107-89 ATS as a favorite including 68-46 ATS as a favorite in this range (3.5 to 9.5 points). The Jets are the trendy pick here, but give the points on the Patriots in a blowout statement win.