New York at New England

When you have Tom Brady dominating defenses and Bill Belichick performing his mastery of turning insignificant players into productive ones, it will not be possible to back New England without a hefty price tag. This game is no exception. While there is no argument that New England's offense is a juggernaut. But, if your team ranks dead last in the entire NFL in defense (477.5 yards per game), it's not very safe to lay this many points. The Pats have allowed 24+ points in three of their four games and 34+ in half of them! The Jets are 22-10 in their last 32 games, so we aren't looking at a bad team here. They are also coming off of two losses, so they are going to be focused for this one against their arch rival. New York also took a pasting here last year 45-3, and have had this game circled. The Jets have a good enough defense to slow down the Pats, while the offense can produce enough to stay within striking distance. The Jets are off an embarrassing game offensively producing just 150 yards of total offense vs. the Ravens. But, they have followed up games like that with a nice rebound. Following games in which they gained 250 yards or less, New York is 10-3 ATS in their last 13. The road team in this series has been cashing big at 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meeting. The Jets stay inside the number here and get the call.