New York at New England

This is an AFC East rivalry game in frigid New England, where 12 degrees is expected on Sunday! The New York Jets are a huge dog, but always get up to play the Patriots, even when they're having losing seasons. They covered the first meeting, a 24-17 loss as a +9.5 dog. The New York defense is playing well, allowing 23 and 14 points in two of their last three games. The undervalued Jets are on a 9-3-1 spread run and are 14-5-2 ATS in these cold weather December contests. They are also 11-5 UNDER the total after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. New England can wrap up the top seed here and went to the ground game last week to top Buffalo. The Pats' defense has been great in the red zone, on an 8-3 run UNDER the total, including 7-3 UNDER against losing teams. But overall, this unit has struggled against the run because of injuries at linebacker and a lack of edge speed all season, at #29 in total yards allowed and #26 against the run allowing 119.7 yards rushing per game. That's why they made the move to sign 39-year-old LB James Harrison this week. NFL favorites of 10.5+ points in December contests after playing a game at home are 19-42 ATS. The Jets are 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings with New England, and this shapes up as a defensive game with a lot of running, which keeps the clock moving and the score down. Play the New York Jets and the UNDER.