New York at New England

We had some meaningful games this week, but none bigger than this as ESPN follows one of their worst MNF matchups (Arizona-San Francisco last week) with one of the best possible matchups. The 9-2 New England Patriots host the 9-2 New York Jets in what should be a playoff atmosphere type game, played with playoff intensity. When these teams met in week two, the Jets whooped up on New England by 14 points. It was a huge win for New York who had lost their opener to Baltimore. If you recall, the talk was about how huge a dissapointment the Jets were after their bad performance vs. the Ravens. In that game, they managed just 176 total yards, scoring only 9 points. The statement win against the Pats got them back on track. With the playoffs right around the corner and these teams locked for the AFC East lead, this game is huge for both clubs. My computer matchup for this game (NOT an official pick) predicts a close Patriots win. The public likes the Patriots to exact revenge and get a win and cover. I think the Pats should win this game but I think the best value lies on the UNDER. In addition to the playoff intensity (which often leads to lower-scoring games), this game has an added element that should favor the UNDER - the weather. The game will be played with temperatures in the 20s, but more importantly, the wind is likely to be a big factor. The wind will be out of the west, which is across the field from left to right at around 20 MPH, with higher gusts. It certainly will impact the kicking game, and should make it difficult to complete long passes. The Patriots have an equalizer with a windy and cold home stadium in December games. The Pats defense in December home games the last five years has allowed just 85 points in 10 December home games. That's a ridiculous 8.5 ppg. The Jets were participants in two of those ten games, scoring 13 total points. It's no surprise that the UNDER in the Pats December home games is 9-1. In late-season games vs. great teams (.750 or better), Bill Belichick's Patriots teams are a perfect 8-0 UNDER. Overall vs. good offensive teams (those scoring 24+ per game), the Pats are 30-18 UNDER in the Belichick era. This Jets team is predicated on defense, and they have started to create their own December defensive legacy, going 13-3 to the UNDER in their last 16 December games. In their last 35 games vs. good offenses (teams scoring 27+ points per game), New York is 24-11 to the UNDER. Everything points to an UNDER here and that's what I'm playing.