New York at Miami

If you think all the rule changes have done wonders to help NFL offenses, you haven't watched the New York Jets try and move the football this season. In an age of passing the pigskin, the Jets rank dead last with 170 yards passing per contest. Their three quarterbacks have combined for (are you sitting down?) 13 TDs, 15 picks, and 46 sacks in 15 games. At least the defense is good, fifth against the run with a strong D-line that can get after the QB and contain the run. They harrassed Tom Brady and the Pats last week allowing 17 points. The Jets are sixth in total defense with an average of 323.2 yards. New York is 6-0 UNDER the total against the AFC and on a 6-1 run UNDER the total overall. Miami compares with the Jets defensively, allowing 333.3 yards per game. The offense, though, has been erratic, scoring 16, 13, and 13 points in three of the last four games. Miami is on a 7-3 run UNDER the total, 33-16-2 UNDER against the AFC, and the UNDER is 19-9 when the Dolphins face a team with a losing record. Miami won its Week 13 matchup with the Jets 16-13, holding Geno Smith to 65 yards passing. The Dolphins have topped New York in four of the last six matchups, but fell in the last meeting in Miami 20-7 in December of 2013. This will be another low scoring tilt, and the UNDER is a perfect 4-0 the last four meetings. Only one way to go in this one: UNDER the total.