New York at Miami

This line opened at -1 and has climbed to -2.5. Not a big difference really unless it hit -3. We like the side that is getting the action. Miami has been an interesting team this year. They start out 1-6 SU and 0-6-1 ATS. Then they win four straight and five of six both SU and ATS. They beat New England 21-0 last week only to get blanked 21-0 by Buffalo last week. We expect a strong bounce-back by them here after that terrible performance last week. Teams off a shutout are always worth a look as they are a bit undervalued. Meanwhile, the Jets are off a very high-profile win as they went into Minnesota and won on the road. They have won three of five and have the playoffs in their sites. There are now believers in New York. It's a great clash of opposite forces here which gives us a contrarian play on the Fins. If not for the outcomes of last week, Miami would be laying well over a field goal here. It's actually a bit surprising to see Miami favored here. The linesmakers are giving us a hint here. Why would a losing team off a terrible loss be favored over a winning team off a win? That loss last week by Miami was maybe due to their competition. The Fins won't take this game lightly as they need it desperately and they are 8-1 ATS vs. winning teams during the second half of the season the past three years. The Jets are a great story. We are happy about them having won eight games already as we had a big play on them to win over 6 this year. But, let's look at who they have been beating. They beat Tennessee in week one when the Titans were among the worst teams in the league. They beat Buffalo in week three when the Bills were horrible. They beat Miami early on when Miami was in the middle of their 1-6 start. They then beat Detroit (bottom 5 team), Houston (bottom 10 team), Green Bay and a struggling Minnesota. They really have one quality win against a quality opponent this year and that was a 17-14 victory over New England. So, take New York's 8-6 record with a grain of salt. Miami, in the second half of the season, has beaten Chicago, Kanas City, Minnesota and New England. The edge here goes to the Dolphins at home.