New York at Indianapolis

The Colts lost four of five games this season and it had many questioning whether this team was ready to start a decline. But, four straight wins to close the season have quieted the murmurs somewhat. It may look like Peyton Manning had an off season, and may be declining. He probably is on the downward slope in his career. But, this is still one of the league's elite QBs. He passed for 4,700 yards, completing 66% of his passes and throwing for 33 TDs (all three ranked second best in the league). His problems were really encapsulated in a midseason 5-game slump. Manning threw 13 INTs in the five games to just 9 TD passes, but his other 11 games show him with Brady-like numbers at 24 TDs to 4 INTs. The Colts offense has been better in the last five games of the season than any five-game stretch all season, averaging 31 points per game. That has led those games to average 57.8 ppg, far and away above the number needed here to push this one OVER the total. New York's offense and Mark Sanchez is dissed often but this team has scored a lot of points in a lot of games this season. They had four stinkers in which they scored 9 vs. Baltimore, 0 vs. Green Bay, 3 vs. New England and 6 vs. Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh and Green Bay own the #1 and #2 defenses in the league in points allowed while New England is #8. Miami is in the top half in scoring defense and 6th best in the league in yards allowed. So, this offense really couldn't get it done vs. great defenses. But, in their other 12 games, the Jets put up 29 points per game! The Colts  are ranked in the bottom 3rd in the league in scoring defense, so I expect New York to score here. The Jets defense has proven to be a lot more vulnerable this season, especially against the pass. That's Indy's strength. The Jets allowed 16 ppg through their first nine games, but 22.3 ppg in their last seven. On the road on the season they have allowed 24.6 per game. They are now 13-3-1 to the OVER in their last 17 road games, and 6-0 over as a dog of 3 or less. This season, when facing a pass defense that allows 61%+ completions, the Jets are a perfect 10-0 OVER. They are also 7-1 OVER in expected close games (line of -3 to +3). Indy is running at 6-0-1 to the OVER in their last seven as a favorite of 3 or less and 11-1 OVER the past two seasons when coming off an UNDER. Take the OVER in this one.