New York at Green Bay

The deck was stacked against Green Bay last week. They drew the short straw and opened the 2014 NFL season on the road in Seattle, where the Seahawks are now 18-1 in their last 19 games. The building is always loud, but celebrating their Super Bowl romp from a year ago just amped the crowd even more. Green Bay now faces a must-win scenario. The good news is they come home where they have the NFL's fourth best winning margin since 2007 at 10 points per game on average. They also have one of the best QBs in the league in Aaron Rodgers who is 19-10 ATS in his last 29 when following a loss in their previous game. The Jets escaped at home last week against an Oakland team that has now lost seven straight games. It was pretty ugly, and New York is going to struggle in this atmosphere against a hungry and mad Green Bay team that is destined and determined not to dig an 0-2 hole for themselves. The Jets failed to top the 20-point mark vs. Oakland, marking the 11th time in their last 17 games they have failed to do so. Green Bay has something they have been lacking in past years as Eddie Lacy is a bonafide top back, and it gives them the closer they never had. They can now take a lead and put the ball on the ground and close the game. Green Bay is 45-21-2 ATS in their last 68 games after allowing more than 350 yards. And under Mike McCarthy, this team is 28-17 ATS as a favorite int he 3.5 to 9.5 point range. They have also played six of their last eight at home to the UNDER, and the Jets are 5-2 to the UNDER in their last seven. Look for Green Bay to open a big lead, close and shorten the game feeding Lacy. Go with Green Bay and the UNDER.