New York at Carolina

Carolina's defense was exposed last week by the offensive-minded New Orleans Saints who hammered them for 31 points. Probably the biggest disguise in football is the fact that there is nothing extraordinary about the Carolina defense, despite the numbers they have produced. The Panthers grade out at allowing 5.3 yards per play against teams that have gained 5.5 yards a play, so they are just a tick above average. The Jets win vs. Oakland last week has moved them to 6-7 and still have some faint playoffs hopes alive. The problems is that the Jets have faced is a defense that has allowed 28.7 points per game over their last 10 games. While the offense exploded for 37 points last week, it simply isn't strong enough to keep up with what the defense is allowing, especially vs. a good team like Carolina. And they won't get away with it as they did vs. Oakland. The Panthers have made quick work of losing teams where they are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 facing one. The Jets are 38-17-1 to the OVER after allowing 350+ yards in their previous game, as well as 31-15 to the OVER after gaining 350+, both apply here. The Panthers are 5-1 to the OVER after a loss in their last six, and the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Take Carolina and the OVER.