New York at Washington

Sometimes our human brains can fail us. We fall into the trap of putting a label on a team and then not budging, despite evidence to the contrary. The Redskins are the team no one wants to touch. But maybe it should be the Giants that scare you. In September, the Giants looked like a Super Bowl contender. They opened the season at 5-0, beating teams by an average margin of 16 points per game. But that was a long time ago, folks. In their last eight games this team has gone 2-6. They have beaten just one team by more than 3 points, and that was the Dallas Cowboys by 7. The defense that allowed 14.2 ppg in those first five games has not held a single team under 20 since, allowing a ridiculous 32.4 ppg. To put that in perspective, it is the highest amount of points allowed by any team in the NFL over that span. And this team is favored on the road? I'm not buying it. The Redskins problem of course, is offense. They average just 18 points per game and have scored single digits three times. But, what better for this team than to face a team allowing 32+ per game over the past two months? And, while "Reskins=low-scoring" has been etched into the minds of sports bettors, is that really still the case? The Skins have become a much better offensive team over the last five weeks. They have gone from a team that scored 17 or less in each of their first eight games, to one that has averaged 24.2 ppg in their last five. The result? A perfect 5-0 ATS record over that span. The offense ranks 23rd in points scored per game, but over the last five weeks it has been a top 10 offensive team. The defense has been top 10 caliber all season long. The Giants once powerful running game has had problems, and they have been forced to the air a lot, and that is where the Skins have a huge advantage. Washington allows the 4th fewest passing yards in the NFL, and their 36 sacks is just six behind the league leading Vikings who have played one more game. The Giants have dropped seven of their last eight against the points, and their last five as a favorite. Bottom line? Wrong team favored. Take the Skins.