New York at Minnesota

These teams combined for 51 points on Christmas Eve but I feel this one is going to come in UNDER this total. The GIants average just 20.5 points per game on the road this season while allowing only 21.9 per game. Over the last four games (three of which were on the road), the G-Men gave up an average of just 17.8 ppg. Minnesota's pass defense is their weakness, allowing opponents sto complete 66% of passes. However, over the past three seasons, this Giants team is 25-11 UNDER when facing a team like Minnesota that allows over 60% completion rate. And over that span, New York is 17-5 UNDER vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350+ yards per game. They are also 27-12 UNDER over that time frame as an underdog. Look for this game to come in UNDER the total. New York knows that a road shoot-out here is not in their best interest and I expect them to play well on defense and try to turn this into a grind-out time possession type of game. Aiding that goal is the fact that the G-Men get back top cornerback Adorre' Jackson and safety Xavier McKinney in this game - both of whom missed the first game. They will be critical in helping contain Justin Jefferson. If Jefferson can be slowed, and the Giants can get the kind of pressure on Kirk Cousins they did the first go around (4 sacks and 11 hits), then this game should be lower scoring than the first one. Take the UNDER here.