New York at Green Bay

The Giants suffered one of the worst defeats of any team in many years last week. I expect a bit of a negative hangover from that here. The Green Bay Packers have been a great team over their last 22 games. Their 15-7 record over that span hides some suprising truths. The Packers’ eight losses have all come by 4 points or less, while they have blown out teams by 18 points or more on seven different occasions.This team is either going down to the wire, or blowing someone out. The Giants, believe it or not, are just 12-13 in their last 25 games. When you look at how this team has performed on the road vs. a winning team in their last five, it hasn't been pretty at 0-5. They have lost by at least 10 points in everyone of them, and were outscored by 197-82. That means that they are allowing 39.2 points per game to a winning team on the road. Eli Manning's mistakes are just too much to overcome vs. quality opponents on the road. I like the Packers here. I also like the OVER. The G-Men are allowing nearly 40 points per game in their last five road games vs. winning teams and their offense has averaged 25.7 per game this season. The Packers are scoring 31.5 per game at home this year. The Giants have played to a 13-4 mark to the OVER vs. the NFC in their last 17. Green Bay is 17-6 to the OVER after gaining 350+ in their last game. Mike McCarthy is 20-9 OVER following a loss. Take Green Bay and the OVER in this one.