New York at Denver

Denver hit a low last week. After a 6-0 start, they have lost four in a row, the last game a 32-3 drubbing that allowed San Diego to take over the division lead - something that seemed unthinkable when they owned a 3.5 game lead just four weeks ago. They have been outscored 117-37 over their losing streak. Even during their winning streak, Denver didn't get much support from the oddsmakers or public. After four weeks of horrid football, no one wants to touch them. The oddsmakers had to open them as a big home dog, and the public has pushed the line even higher. I believe Denver is ready to make a stand. New York comes in here off a win, but is this team really deserving of a TD-road favorite role? Before last week's win, the Giants had lost four in a row. They haven't covered the spread in five straight games. And, even in the win their defense gave up 31 points. Over the past five games, this defense has allowed 164 points - 32.8 per game! That's just the kind of defense that Denver needs to face right now. Coming in off a very short week, it's not likely that New York was able to remedy what ails them defensively. So there's no reason to expect a major change this week. Antonio Pierce is still out and that only makes matters worse for the G-Men defense. On offense, the Giants will be without Ahmad Bradshaw. With Brandon Jacobs having a bad year, and coming off a leg injury, don't expect the Giants to run the ball particularly well, especially against a Denver defense that is ranked 7th in the league in points allowed. Give me the home team with the much better defense, getting a touchdown.