New York at Dallas

The Dallas Cowboys simply don't produce as a favorite in the Jason Garrett era. Over the past three seasons, this team 12-7 ATS when getting points. But, they are just 6-21 ATS as a favorite including 4-19 ATS when laying a field goal or more. The New York Giants slipped a year ago on defense, which is inexcusable for a team that features Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul. They finished 22nd in the league in sacks, allowing the second most yards in the NFL on defense. Those issues look to have been addressed with the addition of seven new defenders. The most influential will be Cullen Jenkins on the defensive line. What the Giants did do last year despite their shortcomings was force 35 turnovers. I look for the addition of Jenkins, and a revived commitment of both Tuck and Paul, to vastly improve the defensive numbers from a year ago. Dallas will turn over the play calling duties to Bill Callahan which could change the pass-happy Dallas offense. A year ago America's team threw the ball the second most in the league - over 66% of the time. That didn't work out too well. And the Cowboys defense last season was bad, allowing 25 points per game (27.7 in home games and 28.0 in division contests). The Giants are 57-37 ATS in their last 94 games as a road dog of 7 or less. And under Tom Coughlin they are 37-23 ATS overall as a dog. And in the Coughlin era, the G-Men are 67-47 ATS vs. NFC opponents. Compare that to Garrett's 9-21 ATS mark in NFC conference games and 4-12 ATS mark in division games. Take the Giants plus the points here.