New York at Atlanta

The Falcons are much improved this season, especially on defense. They have given up just 10.5 points per game thus far. But, their offense has not taken that next step. They are averaging just 17.3 points per game. It's been good enough to chalk up a 3-1 record but it may not be good enough vs. the Giants this weekend. New York can score. They are getting 25 points per game. That average would be higher had they not stalled numerous times last week versus Washington. They put up their lowest point total of the season last week at 19 but it could have easily been 30+ based on how they moved the ball. They racked up 155 yards on the ground and 411 total. The Giant defense is again suspect but let's take a look at who they've had to face. In week one, they got Peyton Manning and company. In week two, Donovan McNabb who has been red hot this year. Week three? Only the Super Bowl runner-up Seattle Seahawks. Finally last week they faced Washington who has been up and down but who had scored 67 points in their two games prior. The Giants held them to 3 points. I don't think their defense is as bad as many think. It's not a great defense but given who they've faced, they've held their own. Mike Vick doesn't look very good right now. He's hitting just 49.5% of his passes and averaging only 5.1 yards per pass. Compare that to 67.1% and 7.4 YPP for Eli Manning. Yes, Atlanta can run the ball like no other team. But, New York's running game is no slouch. The Falcons haven't seen an offense like this all season. Atlanta's off a blowout win over Arizona and as such, they are a bit overvalued right now. They qualify for a negative situation involving favorites off a dominating home win that is 7-3 the past two years and 90%+ over the past decade. I look for the Giants to keep this closer than a field goal and maybe get the outright win.