New Orleans at Tampa Bay

The New Orleans Saints have had problems getting things working as efficiently as they did a year ago. We backed Arizona last week and they came through with the outright win. The Saints offense has sputtered, but will this continue all season? Probably not. This offense is better than the 19.8 points per game they have delivered thus far. It's not as if this team hasn't moved the ball. The Saints are in the top ten in the league in yards per game, but on the scoreboard they rank just 18th. Those numbers usually merge together in time. WIth a competent offense, I truly expect to see that happen. The Tampa offense is much better this season as well as they have moved up from #30 a year ago to #21 this season. The Bucs did a good job defensively vs. Carolina and Cleveland but, a struggling Pittsburgh offense scored 38 on them and a struggling Cincinnati offense reached 21. It shows the vulnerability and New Orleans with Drew Brees can certainly turn struggles into success in this game as well. I expect both teams to score here. The Saints have played to a 20-8 OVER mark in their last 28 posted as a road favorite and 49-24-4 to the OVER vs. a team with a winning record. Under Sean Payton, the Saints are 12-4 OVER on the road to a total in this range (43-49). They are also 36-20 OVER in conference games under Payton and 16-6 OVER vs. winning teams. I like this one to play OVER the total.