New Orleans at Tampa Bay

It has become a given that the New Orleans Saints games are going to be played against heavily "taxed" totals on the plus side, and no surprise here to see this one pushing over 50. There is an elongated history in the NFL that points to bias regarding high totals in a certain range, and this one is within that threshold. The bias points to totals that are set too high, because the public loves offensive teams and OVERs, and that certainly fits the bill here. Last week New Orleans played to the OVER (thanks to a special teams touchdown). Tampa Bay's anemic offense has caught some fire under Josh Freeman. But the scores are a bit misleading. The reality is 417 yards in two games with two INTs, doesn't show that to be the difference.. So the two games fresh in the minds of the public offset the seven games of averaging 13+ a game? The stats don't say it. The Bucs offense is averaging 276.3 yards per game, and with Freeman at QB in the last two, they have scored 61 points. But the yards average is just about the same at 290.5 (14 yards per game better). Hardly anything that says the Tampa Bay offense is rolling! The Bucs have played eight of their last eleven against a winning team to the UNDER. New Orleans is just 50% over/under this season in division games (which tend to be tighter, harder fought battles). I like this one to go UNDER.