New Orleans at Tampa Bay

A showdown for first place in the NFC South. New Orleans is outscoring opponents by +34 points, the fourth-best differential in the NFC. They have a reliable veteran QB in Derek Carr (19 TDs, 8 INTs) for this big game and a defense that is ninth in points given up (19.8 per game) and fourth on third down (34.78%). The Saints are 30-14 ATS on the road after getting outrushed by 75+ yards in the last game, plus 38-22 ATS on the road after allowing 30+ points. New Orleans lost the first meeting to Tampa Bay in October, 26-9, but is 42-24 ATS on the road revenging a loss to an opponent, including 27-13 ATS revenging a loss of 14 or more points. Tampa Bay's defense is 24th in yards allowed while the ground attack on offense averages just 3.4 yards per rush, the worst in the league. And NFL home favorites with a winning percentage of 51% to 60% off an upset win as a home dog are 6-26 ATS against losing teams. Play New Orleans.