New Orleans at Tampa Bay

The New Orleans Saints looked for awhile like they might take down the unbeaten Carolina Panthers last week. Eventually they simply could not hold on, and failed to cash in on Carolina's mistakes enough to come away with a win. Many are going to voice the opinion of how are the Saints going to react after playing an unbeaten team, laying it all on the line, and now have to travel to Tampa Bay as a dog? The answer suggests otherwise, as the last eight teams from week 13 on are 5-2 ATS as a road dog after losing to an unbeaten team. And six of those seven games have played UNDER the total, so the short answer is - they respond well. Tampa Bay at 6-6 has a shot at the playoffs, and while first year QB Jameis Winston has been somewhat erratic, he is an upgrade to a staggering offense before he got here. That being said, the Bucs are still averaging just 21 points per game at home. Tampa Bay got all kinds of help from Philadelphia a few weeks ago where they scored 45 points, but the five other games in their last six show just 86 total points, or 17.2 ppg. Thankfully over their last four, they have allowed just 67 points, or 16.8 points per game. The Saints will be playing a game for the first time since week six of the 2007 season as a team that did not generate 350 or more yards in three straight games. However, they do have a winning ATS record after having done so, but the games have averaged just 38 ppg total by both teams. The Bucs are just 18-35-1 ATS at home since 2009. Play on New Orleans and the UNDER.