New Orleans at Tampa Bay

This is a high NFL total but don't overlook how much improved the New Orleans defense has been all season. New Orleans is #16 in the NFL defensively in yards allowed, #1 against the run, and #13 in points surrendered. They come off a rare loss but allowed just 13 points at Dallas. The Saints are still top 10 offensively in yards, #11 in passing, second in points (34.9 pg), and on a 9-1 spread run. It's a division game against a Tampa Bay team that has allowed 17 points or fewer in three of its last four games. The Bucs play their best defense at home on natural grass, going four straight games UNDER at home. But this is a tough matchup, and the Buccaneers are 7-18-1 ATS at home against a team with a winning road record, plus 7-19-1 ATS after allowing 250+ yards passing in their previous game. The UNDER is 14-6 when these rivals clash, including 8-2 UNDER on the Tampa Bay natural grass, so back the visitors to cover in a defensive duel. Play New Orleans and the UNDER.