New Orleans at Seattle

With their week 17 win over the Rams, the Seahawks became the first 7-9 team to win their division and host a playoff game. As a reward, they get the defending Super Bowl Champions, a team that won 11 games. How can Seattle possibly have any shot here? Well, their chances are low, but hear me out. I believe it's worth a small flyer on Seattle to pull off the monster upset. This Saints team, while definitely the better team taking the field in this game, has some real chinks in their armor.  It has been an upside down year for the Saints, who dominated teams a year ago with a potent offensive attack. They scored 30+ points 12 times through the Super Bowl and went for 45+ on five occasions. This season the Saints’ attack is still good, but has not reached 35 points in a single game this season (the only playoff team with such a distinction). So needless to say that what got them here a year ago, has been absent this year. Drew Brees is one reason. Brees has had a good year, but he has suddenly become a mistake-prone QB, doubling his interceptions from a year ago from 11 to 22 this year. And, his yards per attempt went from 8.5 a year ago to a pedestrian 7.0 this year. Part of the problem for Brees is the lack of a running game. Last season the Saints owned the sixth best running game in the league. This year, they are fifth worst! And, they just lost Chris Ivory, their leading rusher (and Pierre Thomas is still out). Their offensive struggles have led to a home loss to Tampa Bay and Cleveland, as well as a road loss to Arizona. If those teams can beat the Saints, why not the Seahawks? Last week the noise in Seattle inspired a team in their biggest game of the season. A team that allowed 34 points or more points in each of their last three games kept the Rams out of the end zone the entire game. The Seahawks played the Saints statistically even on the road in New Orleans this year, losing the yardage battle by 382-366 in a high-scoring game. Matt Hasselback is back under center for the Seahawks and this is a QB with a winning playoff pedigree. The Saints haven't won a road playoffs game ever. This will be their third game in 12 days. The pressure here won't be on Seattle as they are playing with house money. Yes, it's a longshot that isn't likely to win, but I am putting one unit on a crazy upset here. I am also playing the OVER. These teams played to 53 points earlier in the season. In their last seven playoff games, the Saints have gone UNDER the total just once. They are also 20-9 to the OVER in their last 29 as a road favorite. Seattle has played 5-0 to the OVER vs. a winning team, as well as 8-1 to the OVER in their last nine games. Over the past two seasons, the Seahawks are 10-2 to the OVER when facing a winning team. Over that same span, the Saints are 8-1 OVER on the road to a total in this range (42-49). I like this game to go OVER the total and taking a small flyer on the home team to pull off the upset.