New Orleans at Seattle

The New Orleans Saints have lost just two games all season, at New England and at the Jets. But a lot of their wins have come against a weak schedule. The Saints faced and beat Atlanta (twice), Tampa Bay (when they were awful), Miami and Buffalo. The Saints have two quality wins and both came at home (over Dallas and San Francisco). Seattle has a couple of quality wins over San Francisco and Carolina, the latter on the road. Their only blemish on the season was a loss at Indianapolis. I believe Seattle to be the best team in the league, hands down. And, this team rarely loses in this building. Since 2005, at home the Seahawks are 53-21 straight-up and 50-23-1 ATS (69%) including 10-3 ATS since the arrival of Russell Wilson. The Seattle secondary took a hit with the loss of CB Walter Thurmond on top of the injury to CB Brandon Browner. Are they in trouble with Drew Brees coming to town? The key here is the location of this game. Since the 2008 season, the Saints are 38-11 straight-up and 33-14-2 ATS at home. But on the road over that span they are just 21-26-1 ATS. This is going to be a playoffs type atmosphere and that’s not good for the Saints as they are 0-5 in road playoffs games including 0-3 under Sean Payton. At home this season, New Orleans is averaging 33.2 points per game. On the road, that drops to 21.2 – a full 12 points difference! The Saints defense is also a real homer – averaging 4.4 points per game allowed more on the road. Over the past three seasons, Seattle is 12-3 ATS vs. winning teams. And, this team has thrived vs. teams like the Saints – teams with prolific passing games. Seattle is 13-4 ATS the past three seasons vs. teams that complete 61%+ of their passes and 11-1 ATS vs. teams that pass for 235+ yards per game. In Seattle, Pete Carroll is a perfect 9-0 ATS as a favorite in this range (3.5 to 9.5 points). Lay the points with the Seahawks here.