New Orleans at Philadelphia

Last year the Philadelphia Eagles were supposed to have it all. But, injuries and poor team chemistry were more than they could overcome. They turned out to be a disaster as a team that closed the regular season at 1-11 in their last 12 games. Out goes Andy Reid and in comes Chip Kelly, and more of the same to start. Philadelphia opened the season at 3-5 and looked to be dead in the water once again. Then Nick Foles took over and has become an elite QB for the last eight games. The Eagles closed out the season at 7-1, and were finally the team everyone thought they would be a year ago. But, Foles was actually a lot better on the road than at home this season (mirroring his team's fate). Foles put up a 138.4 passer rating on the road, but that fell to just 94.1 at home. New Orleans' home/road dichotomy is well noted. In home games, Drew Brees owns a ridiculous 126.3 passer rating. But, send him out under the elements, and he is ordinary. On the road, his passer rating falls 41.5 points to 84.8 (the league average passer rating this season was 84.1). So, instead of an elite quarterback here, the Eagles are facing a league-average QB. The Saints' defense gets a lot of credit, and rightfully so, as they are vastly improved. On the season, the Saints allowed just 19.0 points per game. On grass fields where offenses lose some advantage, they gave up just 16.3 per game. But what goes unnoticed is the improvement by the Eagles defense. Outside the no-show debacle in Minnesota, Philadelphia has not allowed any other team to score more than 22 points against them since week four. That's right - this much maligned defense has been quite good the past 12 games. On the season at home they have allowed just 19.9 points per game. The Saints are 6-1 to the UNDER in their last seven games overall, including their last four on the road. The Eagles sport a 6-0-1 UNDER mark in their last seven home playoff games. So, based on home/road performance, we are looking at two average QB performances here, to go with much improved defenses. While the winner to me is a toss-up in this game, I like the UNDER.