New Orleans at New England

It isn't very often that a Tom Brady led team is held out of the end zone in a game. In fact, prior to last week, Brady had thrown a touchdown in 53 consecutive games. You can be sure that the Brady/Belichick machine was on tilt last week, and will come back strong this week, especially with Gronk expected back and Danny Amendola getting healthier. This duo has a history of bouncing back after weak offensive performances. The last 10 times that New England scored 14 points or less in a game they came back the following game and averaged 33.4 points per game. In the Bill Belichick era, this team is 8-1 OVER the week after being held under 10 points. New Orleans' offense got off to a slow start on the season, but they have gotten their act together. Over the last three games, they're averaging 31.7 ppg. Last season we saw a pair of prime time games in consecutive weeks occur in New England, when Houston and San Francisco came in. These games produced 131 total points, and this one looks to be of similar ilk to me. The Saints are 40-17-1 to the OVER when following an ATS win, while New England is 41-20 to the OVER in their last 61 games overall. Under Sean Payton, the Saints are 24-13 OVER in expected close games (line of +3 to -3) and 44-26 OVER following a win. Make the call on the OVER.