This pick was released to clients on July 25, 2012 at 5:12PM ET.
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New Orleans at New England

November 20, 2005
img1:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

New England showed grit again, winning last week in a game they could have lost. That's the Belichick / Brady difference. Without those two guys, the Pats would likely be 3-6 right now instead of 5-4. But, that win set us up nicely for this game. Similar to the Arizona game, this is a situation of a public favorite giving way too many points against a doormat team. No one wants to touch the Saints right now given how bad and erratic they have been. Heck, New England is still a playoff team, right? And, they are at home. Who cares? As cited here when analyzing the Week 9 Monday Night game against Indy, this New England team is a shell of their former selves. If the existing injuries weren't enough (won't go over them again but you can see my thoughts here), they lost their center Dan Koppen for the season last week. And, Corey Dillon remains severely hobbled. Oh my goodness! It doesn't get any worse than this folks - really. I have NEVER seen a team so injury-decimated as this team. And, in my humble opinion, the center is the second most important position on the field - after quarterback. A missed snap or a few missed blocks can change the outcome of the game completely. New England comes back strong after a loss when their backs are seemingly against the wall but after a win this season they are 0-fer. With all of the injuries, this defense is giving up more yards per game than any other team outside of San Francisco. The Saints should score enough here to keep it closer than 10. I expect them to come out focused and hungry after their bye. Underdogs of 6+ points off a bye, if they had 3+ consecutive losses going into the off week, are a very good bet in the NFL. One star on New Orleans plus the points.

1 unit on New Orleans +10 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
WIN
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