New Orleans at Minnesota

The New Orleans Saints have been playing at a very high level, winning five straight games. They really escaped last week however as Tennessee had the ball in a goal-to-go situation with two plays to punch it in before the clock expired, but couldn't get it done. Minnesota has been on a free-fall, losers of five straight, but they have not yet quit. The Vikings may be 2-11 on the season, but eight of those losses were one-possession games, losing by 7 or less in all of them. They certainly can compete here especially at home. Jared Allen is quitetly having a monster year and Drew Brees has shown vulnerability throughout his career when pressured so this could be an issue. The Vikings should have Adrian Peterson back running the ball against the No. 30 ranked Saints’ run-stop unit, to move the chains and score in the red-zone. The Saints have problems getting up for games against weak teams having gone 3-11 ATS in their last 14 vs. less than .500 squads. The Vikings rise up as a home dog of +3.5 to +10 at 8-3 ATS in their last 11. The Saints are 0-7 ATS the past two seasons on the road vs. bad defensive teams (those allowing 24+ points per game). Take the Vikings. I also like the OVER in this game. Under Sean Payton, the Saints are 43-30 OVER in conference games and 12-3 OVER following back-to-back UNDERs. The Vikings have been playing a lot of high-scoring games and six of their last eight have gone OVER the total. Add Peterson back to boost the red-zone offense and I expect more of the same vs. a New Orleans team that is all about offense. Minnesota is now 6-1 to the OVER in their last seven at home, as well as 5-0 to the OVER vs. a team with a winning road record. The Saints are packing a 27-12-1 mark to the OVER following a spread win. Take Minnesota and play the OVER in this one.