New Orleans at Miami

The Saints are coming off their biggest win in recent franchise history - a resounding and convincing win over the powerful Giants. Drew Brees took apart the Giants secondary en route to a very easy 48-27 win. The Saints are now 5-0 SU and ATS and so far look like the team to beat in the NFC, if not the entire NFL. What that win has done is inflated this line. They are now laying a touchdown on the road to a team that is playing great football of late. The trick against the Saints is to keep their offense off the field as much as possible. What better team to do that than the Miami Dolphins who lead the league in time-of-possession. The teams in the top six for TOP that trail Miami? New England, Giants, Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Minnesota. Pretty good company. The Wildcat offense isn't for everyone. But, Miami has found a way to make this thing really work. The combination of smart play calling and perfect personel have made it unstoppable thus far. They have put up 790 yards rushing in the last four weeks - close to 200 per game - at just about five yards per carry. New Orleans has done a good job against the run, but those numbers are a bit misleading as they have played from a big lead all season, forcing their opponent to the air. Miami showed that they can slow down an air attack with their offense as they held the ball for over 40 minutes vs. the Colts. They should have won that game at home. In spite of that, they would have covered the +7 number that's been posted in this game as the Saints are now considered better than the Colts as this line is juiced beyond the Colts’ number when they played in Miami. The Saints could very well have a bit of a hangover from their big game last week. It's not likely that they'll play at an optimum level in this one as the intensity can't be as high as last week, especially considering that they have a big divisional rivalry game on tap next Monday Night vs. the 4-1 Falcons. Meanwhile, this is a critical game for Miami. They either drop to 2-4 with a loss, or jump to 3-3 with a win and gain a ton of confidence moving forward. The Dolphins haven't allowed a 300-yard passer yet this season despite having faced Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. Brees has been lights out this year but in five games, he's thrown for less than 200 yards in 40% of them (vs. the Jets and Bills). New Orleans may be the best team in the league (they sure look like it), but when you have a team that is undefeated SU and ATS, laying a TD on the road, with over 80% of the public backing them, that team has to be considered overripe and the value has to be on the other side. I'm going with Miami at home.