New Orleans at Houston

Get out the track shoes for this one right? New Orleans has their offense clicking, Houston is getting healthy with weapons returning on the offensive side. And even the Rams scorched the Saints defense for 37 last week. The OVER looks easy, right? Not so fast! The Saints are simply not the same team as last season, having managed just 20.9 ppg on the road. They surely will have to produce more than that to put this one OVER. Houston has a way of getting into scoring matches with good teams. But they play much tighter, lower scoring games against losing teams. Versus four winning opponents, Houston games this season have averaged 59.3 total points. But against sub-.500 teams, the total points scored in five games has averaged just 40. We think after last week, New Orleans' defense will have a chip on their shoulder and play much better. When a team is coming off a bye as a home favorite of -3 or less, the UNDER has hit at a rate of 33-6-1 in all games since the bye began. We also have a system that is live for this game that is 60%+ in over 20 years that points to the UNDER. We will ride the UNDER in this one.