New Orleans at Cleveland

I don't think that many thought the Cleveland Browns, with their suspect offense from last season now led by Brian Hoyer and lacking Josh Gordon could come back from a 27-3 halftime deficit in Pittsburgh. But, they got the game tied at 27 before losing by a field goal. This week they play at home, and will take on the vaunted New Orleans Saints. The Saints have a high-powered offense, right? At home, yes. But on the road it is anything but elite. The numbers from last season demonstrate this in dramatic fashion. New Orleans scored 272 points in eight regular season home games at 34 points per contest, but failed offensively on the road scoring just 142 total points in eight regular season road games at 17.8 points per game. In other words, this offense was half as good on the road. They had success last week in Atlanta, but the Falcons finished last year allowing 380 yards per game, and Cleveland is a solid defensive team at home. Overall last season, the Browns finished ninth in the league in fewest yards allowed. They have just enough offense to stay inside a big home dog number. Since the 2007 season, the Brownies are 12-7 ATS as a home dog of +4 or more, winning six of the games outright. And they are better lately at 6-2 ATS in their last eight. Their improved defense over the last year or two has seen them play their last four in this role all to the UNDER. The Saints loss last week left them at 2-7 ATS in their last nine on the road. And overall their last 10 games have seen them play eight of them UNDER the total. The dog has won the last four in this series, and we have a live one here. Given the public interest in the Saints, the oddsmakers had no choice but to set this number too high. Take the points on Cleveland and take the UNDER.