New Orleans at Carolina

The Panthers won all of two games a year ago, and both of those were inside the weak NFC West. On my ESPN podcast prior to the season, I said the Panthers would finish the year with an ATS record above .500. So far so good. This year they are off to a not so blistering 1-3 start straight-up, but things are a lot different from a year ago. Carolina is 3-0-1 ATS thanks to their rookie QB and value-laden lines. Cam Newton is on pace to throw for over 5,000 yards in his rookie campaign, instantly infusing a dead offense. When you consider this amazing fact, you'll see the difference, but it is not yet showing up in the line. If Newton passes for 4,200 yards this season, which seems very likley with where he sits after four games, he will have single handedly outgained the entire Carolina offense from a year ago! The Panthers are every bit as good as New Orleans on the offensive side at just 14 yards per game less. When you figure in the defense, the Panthers have been 2 yards better per game better than the Saints. That means statistically, these teams are in an almost dead heat, but we get Carolina at home getting a TD for some serious value. The Saints have been known to play flat vs. bad teams, resulting in a 2-9 ATS mark in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record. This dog has some bite.