New Orleans at Atlanta

The Atlanta Falcons are going to be better this season, but just how much better? The oddsmakers have made them a smaller odds favorite to win the NFC South, ahead of Carolina, so that should be a tip off right there. When you consider that since the inception of the NFC South in 2002, no team has ever won the division two straight seasons. Atlanta suffered severely from the injury bug and finished 4-12 last season. You might look around and say that they didn't really do much to upgrade their team, but let's not forget that a healthy version (Julio Jones, Roddy White) of this similar Atlanta team went 13-3 in 2012. While I think 13-3 would be a big stretch, this is going to be a playoffs team, barring a repeat of injuries to key players. The Atlanta defense gave up 21 or more points in all but one game last season, while in 2012 they allowed fewer than that nine times. The defense will be much better this season. The New Orleans offense will miss Darren Sproles this season, especially early on before adjustments are made. The Saints were an offensive machine at home last year, scoring 34 points per game. The road was an entirely different story where they averaged a modest 18.3 ppg and never topped the 27 point mark. Atlanta held them to 17 in Atlanta and their lowest output of the season at home just 23. The Falcons are better and they have handled this vaunted Saints offense in the past, especially in this building. New Orleans is just 2-6 ATS in their last eight on the road and have played UNDER in their last six on the road, as well as UNDER in their last five in Atlanta. Play Atlanta and the UNDER.