New Orleans at Atlanta

You have to wonder about the mindset of the Atlanta Falcons right now. A team that started out looking like a possible Superbowl contender, and a couple of Michael Vick games that led everyone to believe he has turned the corner, has turned into a disaster. It is easy to see what is happening. They just can't move the ball anymore. Since their opening week versus Carolina (when the Panthers weren't very good), the Falcons have had a relatively easy schedule. They have only played 3 games against teams with a winning record. It is very revealing to take a look at those games versus good football teams. They have been outscored in those games 25-9! They have lost the battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball, as they have only managed 40 first downs, but have allowed 67. That is -9 per game in first downs. They have been outgained by 334 yards 744 to 1078. It certainly is hard to win football games that way, and especially hard to cover games giving points to the opponent. New Orleans has been a good story all season, and this team has the ability to stay in games. We like road teams that can pass the ball in the NFL on the road. New Orleans will bring with into Atlanta the #1 passing team in the NFL, and will be facing the #29th ranked pass defense. The Saints will score here. They are putting up 25 ppg which is good for 7th in the league. They are first in the league in yards per game. Atlanta is not a good team when they have to score. Their offense is made for pounding the ball in the trenches and sitting on leads. As a result, they are just 14-32 ATS the last 46 games vs. high scoring teams scoring 24+ per game (including 0-4 the last three years). New Orleans is the better team and they are getting three. They probably win it outright and we have the points as insurance.