New Orleans at Atlanta

The Atlanta Falcons have a tall order in this one vs. the Saints. Over the last three weeks, the Falcons allowed just shy of 900 yards passing to the likes of a hobbled Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb without DeSean Jackson, and Josh Freeman. What can Drew Brees and the Saints do to this team? Let's whip out the calculators. Ok class, ready? The Saints are going over 30 points per game with absolute regularity. In fact, they have scored 30+ in nine of their games and average 36.7 per game. They have scored 14 points per game more, on average, than their opponents give up on average. With Atlanta giving up 28+ points in five of their last seven games, allowing 29 ppg on average in those games, it's not unreasonable to expect 40+ from the Saints here. At the same time, the Saints have allowed 20+ in two-thirds of their games. They allowed the lowly Redskins' offense a season-high 30 a week ago, and allowed Atlanta 27 in the first meeting. I think all Atlanta has to do is get to 14 here and this one goes over the total, and be it Ryan or Redman, I don't see that being a problem as seven of the Saints’ last eight opponents have scored 17 or more. The Saints are now 37-24 OVER under Sean Payton including 25-12 OVER after a win. They are 22-10-1 to the OVER in their last 33 games, and 10-1 to the OVER in their last 11 December games. They are also 18-8 OVER the past three seasons when coming off a win and 14-5 OVER afer scoring 30+ last game. The Falcons have cruised past the total to a 10-3 mark in their last 13 as a home dog, and with the last four in this series playing OVER the total.