New Orleans at Atlanta

While I've bashed the Falcons here many a time, surprise surpise - I'm taking 'em tonight! Atlanta's off a crushing 24-6 home defeat to the Panthers that dropped them to 7-5 and put their playoff life at serious risk. They have a chance to atone for that game and put it behind them tonight. They get another game in front of the home crowd in primetime and face the struggling New Orleans Saints. Vick in primetime is usually money and tonight his team simply overmatches the Saints. The risk in facing a team as bad as New Orleans is the letdown. But after last week's loss, Atlanta can't afford one. Quite the contrary - they've been practicing extra hard this week given their performance last Sunday and over the past four weeks (lost 3 of 4). Atlanta will control the line of scrimmage tonight. They bring the league's best rushing offense into this game (178 yards per game). The Saints are average statsitically but have found every way imaginable to lose this year. They aren't handling the adversity of Katrina very well with players and coaches alike losing their composure just about every week. Two of Atlanta's 3 recent losses were against great defenses (TB, CAR) that pressured Vick. New Orleans can't do that. Winning home favorites of 3 or more off a low-scoring loss hit at 77% in the NFL including 1-0 this year (Washington beat Philadelphia as a 3-point favorite in week 9 after getting shut out by the Giants the week prior). Also, teams that scored in single digits on the road the week prior are rocking at 10-4 ATS this season. One star on the motivated Falcons over the overmatched Saints.