New Orleans at Atlanta

The New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons will meet twice in the next three weeks, so the Falcons playoff chances will for a large part be determined in the two games. Atlanta had an unstoppable offense last year when everything went right. This year it has not been nearly the same. Atlanta's offense has regressed 11.3 points per game year-over-year. Matt Ryan has already thrown more interceptions this year than last, and the yards per attempt have gone from 9.4 to 7.8. New Orleans has been on a roll and the running game has been unstoppable, which has Drew Brees in a much better place. Brees has the luxury of passing for balance vs. necessity, and the numbers show it. Last year Brees threw 15 INTs to just five this season. His yards per attempt are up to 8.1. While the Saints offense is unchanged on the scoreboard vs. last year, the more ball control has allowed the rebuilt defense time to breathe and they have shaved 9 ppg off last year's total. Brees has excelled recently vs. good but not great defenses, those allowing 17.3 to 23.3 points per game. He is 23-14 ATS against them, scoring 28.9 ppg while carrying a passer rating of 104.6. The Falcons' home field is not providing the advantage it did last year as they have lost three home games already, two of which came to Buffalo and Miami. After three straight 7-9 seasons, the Saints are 10-1 in their last 11 and building a Super Bowl run type resume, much the same as Atlanta did last year. I think the Satins add to their resume tonight. Take the points on New Orleans.