New Orleans at Arizona

The New Orleans Saints are always going to be a competitive team behind Drew Brees. The problem last year was an aging offensive line, as well as a defense that just couldn't get enough stops. That led to the Saints losing five games last season when they scored 23 points or more. Looking at that from a different perspective, NFL teams historically win 79% of all games when they score 23 or more points, so they are defensive help away from changing things quickly. The Saints addressed a lot of issues in the offseason, and if the moves upgrade the defense, they are going to win the NFC South. Arizona may have missed their window of opportunity with oft-injured QB Carson Palmer now age 35, and Larry Fitzgerald now 32, and a lot of significant losses on defense. It may not be a player that is missed the most as DC Todd Bowles left for the Jets, and he got more out of less from a defense than any other team. The parts of that defense are even less effective now, and without Bowles working his magic, things might take a turn downward this season. Playoff teams from last year, when playing game one as a home favorite against a team that did not make the playoffs, are 15-30 ATS the last 16 years, as oddsmakers tend to go on a lot from the previous season, but so much has changed. Play on New Orleans plus the points.