New Orleans at Arizona

It's hard to erase the public's memory when the reigning Super Bowl Champion takes the field, and the oddsmakers are always generous to their opponents. The public is lining up on the Saints like they already know the final score in this game, with well over 80% backing them at this point. The fact is that the Saints have been anything but super in 2010. They needed a last second field goal to salvage a win at home vs. 0-4 Carolina. The week before, the Saints lost to Atlanta in overtime, and won at San Francisco by a field goal. The schedule shows the Saints at 3-1, but they have not beaten anyone by more than five points, despite a combined 4-11 by their opponents. The stats show them being closer to a .500 team, vs. mostly weak opponents. Arizona is not nearly the same team they were with Kurt Warner under center and no one wants a piece of them now. Often, it's these teams that cover the number. Even without Warner, the Cards a group of professionals and when professionals get embarrassed as the Cards did last week losing 41-10, they tend to show up next time out. The Saints defense is playing poorly ranking in the 20s against both the run and the pass. The No. 23 ranking against the pass is likely to worsen with the loss of their best corner Tracy Porter to a knee injury. The Saints have also had issues running the ball and Pierre Thomas is dinged, while Chris Ivory has been fumbling way too much. Arizona has some redemption at stake here as well, as the Saints knocked them out of the playoffs a year ago, so this one wont come easy. The Saints are now just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite and the Cards have been a good home dog from 3.5-10 going 5-0 ATS in their last five. They are also 10-2 ATS the past three seasons after a game in which they rushed for 50 or fewer yards and 13-4 ATS at home after three straight ATS losses. I like Arizona in this one.