New England vs. Seattle

Prior to Super Bowl 48, it had been a while since we had the top two teams in the league meet in the Super Bowl. We now get treated to that for the second year in a row. The Patriots and Seahawks were supposed to be here. It may not have appeared that way in early October. New England was 2-2 to start the season but went on to win 12 of their last 15 games to make it here. They dominated along the way, outscoring opponents 468-261 in the process. Despite "deflategate", the Pats deserve to be here.

Seattle also started slow, losing three of their first six games. But after that they went 11-1, allowing an average of 12.7 points per game. In their last eight games, Seattle has given up just 9.8 per game. Surely a case can be made that Seattle should not be here. They were dead-to-rights in the NFC Championship before Green Bay choked away the win. In that game Seattle had a -3 turnover ratio and teams that lose the turnover battle that badly almost never win. In fact, teams with a -3 or worse turnover ratio are just 119-1391 (7.9%) over the past quarter decade. So, it was truly miraculous that Seattle won two weeks ago. But in the end, the Seahawks finished the season with 11 of 12 wins and deserve to be here.

The line on this game opened offshore as high as Seattle -3 but with money quickly flowing to the Pats, the line quickly moved the other way. As of this writing, New England is favored slightly. Much like last year when over 70% of the bets came in on the Broncos, the public is fading Seattle again this year by a 70%+ clip. The public tends to like offense over defense. Defense is boring. Scoring is exciting. They wanted to root for Peyton Manning and the high-flying Broncos offense. They want to root for Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski and the team that scored 35 and 45 points in the playoffs this year. The public was dead wrong last season. Are they wrong again? My computer match-up for this game (not an official pick) predicts a very close game. Let's look at what is likely to happen...

The Patriots rank tops in the league in points per game this season at 30.4. While impressive, that figure is low for the top team in the league in the modern NFL. Last season, Denver led the league with 36.4 per game. The season prior, the leader had 33.9 per game and the year before that, 34.7. You have to go all the way back to 2008 to see a scoring leader average fewer points than the 2014 Patriots. New England struggled early in the year vs. Oakland (16 points) and Kansas City (14) and late in the year vs. Green Bay (21), San Diego (23), the Jets (17) and Buffalo (9). In their other 12 games, the Pats scored at will. The closest defenses they faced compared to what they will see on Super Sunday were Buffalo, Kansas City and Detroit. Against those teams, the Patriots were very inconsistent, scoring 37, 9, 34 and 14 (an average of 23.5). Which team shows up here - the team that dominated 12 opponents and scored 30+ against good defenses or the one that struggled vs. against mediocre teams and scored 14 or less vs. good defenses? Seattle's defense was again tops in the league this year, allowing 16.3 points per game. That's not as dominant as last year's team that gave up just 14.6 per game. But, it should be noted that Seattle had a lot of injuries early in the year resulting in a very un-Seattle like defensive average of 21.5 points per game allowed through the first ten games of the season. They gave up 24+ points in half of those games! But then the defense got healthy. From game 11 on, Seattle has allowed just 9.8 points per game, albeit to mostly bad teams with bad quarterbacks. But, they did what you would want to see vs. bad offenses: they shut them down. Seattle held six of their final eleven opponents to 7 points or less. During that span they faced two very good offenses: Philadelphia and Green Bay, allowing 14 and 22 points, respectively. Over the course of the season, Seattle gave up an average of 20.4 points per game to the top offenses. In the the numbers would dictated Seattle allowing something in the low 20s here. Yes, the Pats offense is great and it seems like they can put up 30+ on anyone. But the reality is that usually doesn't happen in Super Bowls vs. great defenses. Just ask the Denver Broncos.

Seattle's offense got no respect last season which is one reason I really liked them in the Super Bowl. This offense won't light it up very often because they don't have to. They have the best defense in the league and so they play conservatively and do what they need to do to win. I have been lauding Russell Wilson for two years now and at this point I think he is one of the top QBs in the league, hands down. In fact, if I had to win one game, I likely take him over any other quarterback. He's calm, smart, humble and nearly mistake-free. He can make any throw on the field and he can extend plays better than anyone. When he has to make a big play, he makes it. He prepares meticulously, doesn't overextend and he doesn't care about his stats. He cares about winning and he achieves it better than anyone else. On the season, Seattle had a top-10 scoring offense, averaging 25.2 points per game. They scored 23+ in eleven of eighteen games and 30+ five times. This offense can score. New England's defense ranks 7th best in the league in points allowed at 19.5 points per game. That's very good, if not elite. Against defenses like that this season, Seattle averaged 22.5 points per game. Against offenses like Seattle's, New England allowed 25.7 points per game. Miami scored 33 vs. New England early in the season and 13 late in the season and Baltimore scored 31 vs. the Pats a few weeks ago. In their 45-7 win over the Colts last week, the Pats feasted on short passes to Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman. Indy had no answer and the quick Patriots receivers destroyed chewed up yardage and moved the chains. If you recall, Denver's offense last season was very similar with Wes Welker creating a matchup nightmare for most teams. I predicted that the Broncos would not be able to get a lot of passes with high yards-after-catch last season and I think the same holds this year. Seattle's defense is just too quick and fundamentally sound. In the end, the numbers indicate that Seattle likely scores in the low 20s here.

So, the numbers tell a tale of a very close game in the low 20s. However, I am making a call and it's on the Seahawks. The Super Bowl is about defense. Great defenses routinely humble great offenses in these games. Tom Brady's 18-0 team that averaged 34.5 points per game back in 2008 scored 14 when they met the Giants and their fierce pass-rush in the Super Bowl. The Pats also lost four years later when they managed just 17 points vs. the Giants again. And of course there is last year when Seattle's top rated unit held the high-flying Denver Broncos to 8 points. It seems most people have forgotten this already, but this game looks very much like last year's game. I think the Seahawks will have offensive success. Marshawn Lynch will get his yards. In the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks are 29-11 ATS (33-7 straight-up) when they rush for 120+ yards. They have done this in 40 out of 55 games (73%). Seattle will run early and often with both Lynch and with Wilson out of the read-option. New England hasn't faced much read-option and they may not be 100% prepared for the quickness and smarts that Wilson brings to the table. I expect him and Lynch to rack up a lot on the ground. And, Wilson has proven over and over that he can make the key pass when he is asked to do so. Meanwhile, I expect Tom Brady to struggle relative to what most expect out of him. We have seen over the years that defenses that can get him off his spot can shut him down. The Giants did it two Super Bowls in a row and Seattle has the defense to do it here. If we look back this season at a team that really shut down Brady and this offense, look no further than the Jets in week 16. New York held New England to just 17 points in that game. They did by - you guessed it - getting Brady off his spot. The Jets pressured him and forced bad throws. When Brady was not pressured this season, his passer rating was 113.6. When he was pressured, that plummeted to 51.4. I believe the Seahawks will bring the heat and he will under-perform much like he did in his last two Super Bowl appearances. I don't see Brady going off here and I think it's very unlikely that they can get out of the low 20s in points. That's not a good sign for them. Since 2009, New England is 4-31-2 ATS when scoring under 26 points including 0-26-1 when they score under 22 points in a game.

Oh and did I mention that defense wins Super Bowls? The #1 defense has been to the Super Bowl 16 times in 48 years. That #1 defense has won 13 of the 16 games. Meanwhile, great offenses are just the opposite. Since the start of this century, the #1 offense has made it to the big game seven times. These teams averaged well over 30 points per game. But in those Super Bowls? They managed to score an average of 17.9 points per game and winning just once in seven tries! When the #1 offense meets the #1 defense, we get what you might expect. In 2003 the Oakland Raiders and their #1 offense lost to the Buccaneers and their #1 defense 48-21. Last year the #1 offensive team, the Broncos, lost 43-8 to the #1 defensive team in the Seahawks. It's been downright ugly for the top offenses.

There is always the Brady/Belichick factor. The hoody is brilliant and willing to do whatever it takes to win. This combination has been lethal to bet against over the years as a whole. But, what the public has quickly forgotten is how these two have done in the playoffs recently. It's been a decade since the Patriots won the Super Bowl. Since that win over the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX, New England is 7-12 ATS in the playoffs. Over the past six years, they are 6-5 straight-up and 4-7 against the number. And in their last two Super Bowls, with arguably the best quarterback and best coach of all time, and two weeks to prepare, the Pats are 0-2. So, this dynamic duo is certainly not invincible.