New England vs. Los Angeles

If the first-quarter is the proverbial tortoise, the fourth quarter in the Super Bowl is the hare. More often than not, the final quarter has been a score-fest in the NFL, both in the regular season and, especially, in the Super Bowl. By the time the 4th quarter rolls around in this game, all the jitters are gone and it's no-holds-barred. The NFL league average in the fourth quarter (plus overtime) this season was 13.5 (44% higher than the first quarter). In Pats games this year, 14.6 points were scored on average in the fourth-quarter. In Rams games, 12.5 points were scored on average. So based on those numbers, we might expect around 13.5 points in the 4th quarter of this game this year. However, that's not the whole story. In the Super Bowl, these averages have traditionally increased - a lot. In fact, 21 of the last 31 Super Bowl games (68%) have seen the fourth quarter go OVER the posted total. Eleven years ago, the Pats and Giants combined for 21 fourth quarter points in a game in which just 31 total points were scored. Ten years ago, after seeing just 27 points scored in the first three quarters combined, 23 points were put up in the final quarter by Arizona and Pittsburgh. Nine seasons ago, 14 points scored in the 4th quarter. Eight years ago, the Packers and Steelers put up 18 fourth quarter points. Seven years back, the Giants and Patriots only scored 6 in a rare fourth-quarter UNDER. Six years ago, 14 points were scored by the 49ers and Ravens, going OVER the total. Five years ago was another rare UNDER (7 points scored) as the game was well out of hand with Seattle leading 36-8 going into the fourth so neither team was really pressing any more. Four seasons back, things returned to form with 14 fourth-quarter points and a resulting OVER. Three years ago we saw another rare UNDER in the fourth quarter with 11 points scored. Two years ago, the Patriots put up 19 points alone to push the fourth-quarter OVER the total. And, last year, 19 points were scored by the Patriots and Eagles. In this game, I think these two very prolific offenses will be clicking by the fourth quarter and there's a high chance that the game will not be out of reach. With a 68% historical trend backing us, go with the OVER here in the 4th quarter.