New England vs. Los Angeles

Once again we look to take advantage of an oddsmakers' error in a prop bet on which they have miscalculated the true odds. Which half of football games sees more scoring? So far this season, we have seen a virtual tie for points in the first-half (23.4) vs. the second half + OT (23.1). But as usual, we need to dig deeper. In 52 prior Super Bowls, the average score for the first and second halves, respectively, has been 21.89 and 24.77. So we see that the second half average score is 13% higher. Excluding the 2012 Super Bowl in which the first-half points exactly matched the second-half points, the second-half has been the highest scoring half in 32 of 51 Super Bowls (63%). Fair odds on a 63% bet are about -170. But, it gets even better. Let's look at how things have changed over the years. The discrepancy has become more pronounced in the past few decades as this game has gotten bigger and bigger. Over the last 28 years, the scoring has been as follows: First half = 22.89 and second half = 28.15. That's a 23% difference in points! In the last 20 years, the second half has been the highest scoring half 15 times out of 19 years (79%). And, that includes a fluke pick-6 six a few years ago in the first quarter. Based on that recent history, fair odds on this bet would be -380. So, -165 odds is a gift we will take.