New England at Washington

You don't often see the public backing an NFL team over 85% but in this one 88% are on the Patriots. While it's very tempting, don't follow the lemmings, as they more often then not go right off the cliff. Everyone knows the New England Patriots have a top-flight offense, but at the same time they own the worst defense in the league in yards allowed per game. The Pats have allowed 20+ points to 10 of 12 teams on their schedule thus far. That makes it tough to cover big numbers especially on the road. Even when their defense has been solid, the Patriots still had trouble covering the big numbers put on them by the oddsmakers at 9-18 ATS in their last 27 games when trying to cover more than 7 points. This season they are 1-2 ATS when laying more than 8 points and 3-4 ATS when laying more than 6. The Washington offense is coming to life after seven straight games of scoring 20 points or less. Over their last three games the Redskins averaged 22 points per game, scoring at least 19 in all of them. They have enough defense to stay in this one and they can certainly take advantage of a porous Pats defense. Roy Helu has gone for 100 yards or more in each of the last two, and the Pats can be run on. The Skins had previously gone six straight games without a 100 yard rusher and now that they have one, they should produce at a higher rate than what we have seen. That should help keep the Pats offense off the field enough to get the money in this one. Washington is the pick.